Thursday, April 26, 2018

The Browns are going to take a Quarterback at number 1. My choice is Josh Allen, but if you poll 20 informed fans, you're likely to get picks for 4 or 5 different guys. All drafts are a roll of the dice, the QBs in this one more so than others. So let's take a capsule look at these guys...

Lamar Jackson of Louisville is a dual threat with a strong arm and great speed. Very athletic, but not a classic pocket passer and too inclined to take off and run for me. NFL defenses have caught up to these guys, and unfortunately, they have a hard time staying on the field. Curbing that tendency to flee when the pocket breaks down is hard to do. He's not the greatest at reading defenses or hitting receivers in stride, but those are skills that are refined with experience at the Pro level. I expect him to go mid-First Round.

Josh Rosen of UCLA is the classic pocket passer with the best mechanics in this class. Good arm strength and accuracy, plus he's cerebral and can read a defense. A lot of plusses. When I saw him as a Freshman, I said "There's my Browns quarterback." However, he's slight of build and has already had 2 concussions. The so-called off-the-field issues aren't a problem for me at all. (Really? He's too smart/inquisitive and he's a Liberal? Those are plusses!) He can't extend plays with his legs and his frame won't take a pounding. While I think he has a chance to be excellent at the NFL level, I'm looking elsewhere.

Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma...Errr. The positives - Great leadership skills. Great desire. Great work ethic. To borrow a boxing phrase (which I often do,) In order to beat him, you're going to have to knock him out. He'll just keep coming. Has confidence bordering on arrogance and then jumping over that line. He's short for an NFL QB but he's not slight. Decent arm, accurate, and a fighter. Lots of traits to look for in a franchise quarterback. So why don't I want him?...He's an average athlete. So much of his game is predicated on running around after the pocket breaks down and then pulling something out of his ass. (Usually throwing to a wide open receiver, as most college defensive backs have little ability to cover receivers for more than a few beats.) With his speed, he won't be able to live on that in the NFL. In fact, he'll get killed. Then there's the off-the-field stuff...The hanging up on teams who he thinks have no chance of drafting him, the list of journalists who he feels have slighted him, the incidents that have been well publicized. He's incredibly immature, and his confidence has hardened into a sense of entitlement. This is the guy who has enough positives to get you to the playoffs, but he will never win a Super Bowl. He's a loose cannon, and that is his biggest negative, not his height. I want the cool, calm surgeon who will pick a defense apart a la Aaron Rogers, not the guy who lets his emotions get out of control and flakes out. I suspect Mayfield is the latter.

Sam Darnold of USC. A lot to like here. Decent size and arm strength, with great ability to throw accurately on the run. Very resilient, and excellent leadership skills. The negatives are interceptions and ball security, but these are things that should improve with experience and coaching. Detractors point to the Rose Bowl against Ohio St, but he was under siege that whole game and still threw for around 350 yards. He also made 4 or 5 throws that were jaw dropping. Throws that showed a talent level that is extraordinary. If the Browns take Darnold, I won't be disappointed at all, even if he's not my first choice.

Josh Allen of Wyoming. Everyone knows about the size and "arm talent," which are elite. The negatives revolve around completion percentage and lack of signature wins, as well as lack of games against top level competition. Legitimate complaints, to a point. However...you don't draft a player on what he has done, you draft him on what he will be. The ability to draw these projections is a skill, and it sets the top GMs apart from the pack. A player's resume is a pointer, a baseline, a calling card. The skilled evaluator factors that in with the measurables, then looks at film to determine skill set and tendencies, and project what that player will be. Allen went to a small high school, a junior college, and then suffered a broken collar bone early on at Wyoming. He's inexperienced. Compared to his peers, very inexperienced. His attributes are off the chart, however. He's very intelligent and had the highest Wonderlic score among the top QBs. This is the kind of QB that has the kind of physical ability that comes around once every 25 years. He could bust, but his ceiling is John Elway, who his physical abilities comp to. You can't pass this guy up...But we did.

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