I haven't had time ahead of the draft to go into the detail I would like, but before the draft starts, I want to publish by Draft Board as pertains to the Browns. I'll elaborate more post draft. The first guy still available is who I want them to select.
My "For The Browns" Top 10:
01) Patrick Peterson
02) Marcel Dareus
03) Von Miller
Three absolute studs. I had a very hard time picking between the top 2. If the Browns have any of these 3 fall to them, I will be downright giddy.
04) Robert Quinn
05) Nick Fairley
06) Da'Quan Bowers
07) Mark Ingram
I would be very happy with any of these as well. Edge rushers are very hard to come by, and we've needed one for nearly as long as I can remember. I'm not sure why Fairley is dropping down many boards. He's a player. In fact, Dareus & Fairley are that rare kind of Defensive Tackle that can not only stop the run, but also collapse the pocket and put pressure on the Quarterback. Mark Ingram is the most underrated player in this draft. He has the same body type and running style as Emmitt Smith, and running behind our line would pile up yardage. He would pair nicely with Peyton Hillis. I was one of the few back in 1990 who thought Emmitt Smith was the best player in that draft, despite falling to Dallas at No. 17. I'm not guaranteeing that Ingram will equal Emmitt Smith, but I think he'll be a Pro Bowler for years to come. The only reason I don't have him rated higher is because I haven't given up on Montario Hardesty.
08) A.J. Green
09) Julio Jones
10) Tyron Smith
If we end up with any of these 3, I would prefer it to be after having traded down. (Yes, I know Green is coming off the board early.) Jones is good, but reminds me of Braylon Edwards. Hope I'm wrong, as most mocks have us taking him.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Everyone has us taking a receiver.
The wide majority of mock drafts I've looked at have the Browns taking a Wide Receiver. A.J. Green if he's available, Julio Jones if Green is gone. Most comments indicate that the selector thinks it's the team's greatest area of need, and usually throw in something about helping Colt McCoy. While I think the odds are that they will be fine players, I think going in this direction would be a mistake.
At pick number 6, you should have the opportunity to draft an impact player. If your goal is to make the playoffs, you draft a Wide Receiver. If your goal is to win the Super Bowl, you draft a defensive player. Despite the rules changes that have made the NFL a pass happy league, defense still wins championships. That and Quarterback play. A Wide Receiver will typically touch the ball 5-10 times a game, making his impact limited. I'm not saying Wide Receivers don't matter, but that position is a luxury you can draft *after* you have the other pieces in place. There are too many defensive impact players at the top of this draft to justify taking a wide receiver.
Secondly, which is the better draft strategy? Drafting for need or drafting the best player available on your board? The mocks I've read seem to favor the "need" approach. I don't agree with that drafting technique, but I don't think it's an either/or situation either. I think your draft has to be weighted towards selecting the best player available, favoring your positions (plural) of need. In other words, If I really need a safety, but there are no highly rated safties in the draft, I'll pass on that "need" player, and select the best player available. At the end of the day, I'm looking for impact players. Players who will upgrade the talent level of my team significantly, not just plug a hole. Likewise, let's say Colt McCoy has a good year, but our defense can't keep anyone out of the end zone, and we go 1-15. Even if Colt shows that he can play, do you think that there's any way I don't take Andrew Luck? Not on your life. I'm running to the podium to make that selection. So it's not a cut and dried thing, there's no absolute formula. It is a judgement call that weighs team need with talent available, and makes the best selection based on projecting what kind of a difference that player will make to your team 3-5 years from now.
At pick number 6, you should have the opportunity to draft an impact player. If your goal is to make the playoffs, you draft a Wide Receiver. If your goal is to win the Super Bowl, you draft a defensive player. Despite the rules changes that have made the NFL a pass happy league, defense still wins championships. That and Quarterback play. A Wide Receiver will typically touch the ball 5-10 times a game, making his impact limited. I'm not saying Wide Receivers don't matter, but that position is a luxury you can draft *after* you have the other pieces in place. There are too many defensive impact players at the top of this draft to justify taking a wide receiver.
Secondly, which is the better draft strategy? Drafting for need or drafting the best player available on your board? The mocks I've read seem to favor the "need" approach. I don't agree with that drafting technique, but I don't think it's an either/or situation either. I think your draft has to be weighted towards selecting the best player available, favoring your positions (plural) of need. In other words, If I really need a safety, but there are no highly rated safties in the draft, I'll pass on that "need" player, and select the best player available. At the end of the day, I'm looking for impact players. Players who will upgrade the talent level of my team significantly, not just plug a hole. Likewise, let's say Colt McCoy has a good year, but our defense can't keep anyone out of the end zone, and we go 1-15. Even if Colt shows that he can play, do you think that there's any way I don't take Andrew Luck? Not on your life. I'm running to the podium to make that selection. So it's not a cut and dried thing, there's no absolute formula. It is a judgement call that weighs team need with talent available, and makes the best selection based on projecting what kind of a difference that player will make to your team 3-5 years from now.
Monday, April 25, 2011
A Quarterback at 6?
First a quick word about the prospect of drafting a Quarterback this year-
Some Browns fans would like the Browns to draft a quarterback in the 2011 draft, some even want them to use the 6th pick in the draft on a QB. They argue that Colt McCoy has not shown himself to be a sure-fire franchise quarterback, and since it is the most important position on the field, it's imperative that the Browns have a first rate player at that key position. That sounds reasonable enough, but I don't agree that we should take a QB.
First, I saw enough in Colt McCoy's performance last year to give him the job this year. Does that mean he's our guy? Well, not necessarily, but he's got to prove to me that he's not before I give up on him. His biggest liability is his frame, and by that I don't mean his height. He's pretty slight of build, and I'm not sure that he'll be able to take the pounding over the long haul that NFL quarterbacks have to take. His other weakness is his arm strength, but the West Coast Offense has a way of minimizing that liability. On the plus side...He's smart, makes quick reads, he's accurate, fairly mobile, and throws well on the run. This last quality is often underestimated. The ability to throw on the run is a huge asset, as at that point the play is progressing along and the receiver has had a chance to get into space. Accuracy while moving allows the QB to get the ball to the receiver in space, where he has a chance to gain big yardage after the catch. It can have the same affect as a long bomb, so just because a QB doesn't have a cannon arm doesn't mean he can't make big yardage plays.
Also, the quarterbacks in this draft all have huge question marks. To be honest, I'm not really excited about any of them. Cam Newton has a huge upside, with his size and athleticism, but he hasn't played much under center or ran a Pro-style offense, so his ability to handle the reads and his understanding of NFL defenses is an unknown, and undoubtedly a work in progress. Still, he's the QB that would most merit a high pick, but I'd be extremely reluctant to take that gamble. I like Ryan Mallett's arm and accuracy, but his footwork is terrible and he may turn out to be a head case. Jake Locker is tough, athletic, and has a decent arm, but he's terribly inaccurate. What I've seen of Blaine Gabbert has not impressed me. He seems way too average in his skill set to justify all the talk of a top 5 pick that has been bandied about.
If we had a shot at Andrew Luck, that would be a different matter. The team that picks number 1 next year will get a true franchise quarterback. Someone called him the best QB prospect since Elway, and that may not be far off. Needless to say, I hope a couple of these quarterbacks do go in the top 5. It will result in better players falling to the Browns at 6. However, if I was drafting for the Browns, I would not take a QB at 6, and would not take one down draft either. I know Holmgren has said that they will draft a QB at some point this year, but that may be a bluff. With the many holes on this team, a development project QB is a luxury that we can't afford, and the pick is better used elsewhere, in my opinion.
Some Browns fans would like the Browns to draft a quarterback in the 2011 draft, some even want them to use the 6th pick in the draft on a QB. They argue that Colt McCoy has not shown himself to be a sure-fire franchise quarterback, and since it is the most important position on the field, it's imperative that the Browns have a first rate player at that key position. That sounds reasonable enough, but I don't agree that we should take a QB.
First, I saw enough in Colt McCoy's performance last year to give him the job this year. Does that mean he's our guy? Well, not necessarily, but he's got to prove to me that he's not before I give up on him. His biggest liability is his frame, and by that I don't mean his height. He's pretty slight of build, and I'm not sure that he'll be able to take the pounding over the long haul that NFL quarterbacks have to take. His other weakness is his arm strength, but the West Coast Offense has a way of minimizing that liability. On the plus side...He's smart, makes quick reads, he's accurate, fairly mobile, and throws well on the run. This last quality is often underestimated. The ability to throw on the run is a huge asset, as at that point the play is progressing along and the receiver has had a chance to get into space. Accuracy while moving allows the QB to get the ball to the receiver in space, where he has a chance to gain big yardage after the catch. It can have the same affect as a long bomb, so just because a QB doesn't have a cannon arm doesn't mean he can't make big yardage plays.
Also, the quarterbacks in this draft all have huge question marks. To be honest, I'm not really excited about any of them. Cam Newton has a huge upside, with his size and athleticism, but he hasn't played much under center or ran a Pro-style offense, so his ability to handle the reads and his understanding of NFL defenses is an unknown, and undoubtedly a work in progress. Still, he's the QB that would most merit a high pick, but I'd be extremely reluctant to take that gamble. I like Ryan Mallett's arm and accuracy, but his footwork is terrible and he may turn out to be a head case. Jake Locker is tough, athletic, and has a decent arm, but he's terribly inaccurate. What I've seen of Blaine Gabbert has not impressed me. He seems way too average in his skill set to justify all the talk of a top 5 pick that has been bandied about.
If we had a shot at Andrew Luck, that would be a different matter. The team that picks number 1 next year will get a true franchise quarterback. Someone called him the best QB prospect since Elway, and that may not be far off. Needless to say, I hope a couple of these quarterbacks do go in the top 5. It will result in better players falling to the Browns at 6. However, if I was drafting for the Browns, I would not take a QB at 6, and would not take one down draft either. I know Holmgren has said that they will draft a QB at some point this year, but that may be a bluff. With the many holes on this team, a development project QB is a luxury that we can't afford, and the pick is better used elsewhere, in my opinion.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Why start blogging on the Cleveland Browns draft now?
I'll begin with the purpose of this Blog -
As any fan of the Cleveland Browns knows, the team has generally done a dismal job of drafting college football talent since coming back in to the NFL in 1999. As someone who follows the team and it's personnel moves, I've had my own choices over the years as to who the Browns should have drafted, at least regarding the 1st and 2nd rounds. My picks have generally turned out better than the actual picks the team's front office has made.
The drafting fortunes of the Browns may have taken a turn for the better since the selection process has come under the control of Tom Heckert with input from team President Mike Holmgren. The 2010 draft yielded some real talent that will help the Browns going forward, and there's no reason to suspect that 2011 won't be likewise fruitful. Nonetheless, given the convenience that the internet affords, I've decided to publish my draft preferences in this Blog, with a view to comparing how the players selected compare over time with my choices.
There is less than a week to go til the draft begins. I'll be publishing analysis daily, covering the players that many of the pundits predict to be available at the top of the draft this year.
As any fan of the Cleveland Browns knows, the team has generally done a dismal job of drafting college football talent since coming back in to the NFL in 1999. As someone who follows the team and it's personnel moves, I've had my own choices over the years as to who the Browns should have drafted, at least regarding the 1st and 2nd rounds. My picks have generally turned out better than the actual picks the team's front office has made.
The drafting fortunes of the Browns may have taken a turn for the better since the selection process has come under the control of Tom Heckert with input from team President Mike Holmgren. The 2010 draft yielded some real talent that will help the Browns going forward, and there's no reason to suspect that 2011 won't be likewise fruitful. Nonetheless, given the convenience that the internet affords, I've decided to publish my draft preferences in this Blog, with a view to comparing how the players selected compare over time with my choices.
There is less than a week to go til the draft begins. I'll be publishing analysis daily, covering the players that many of the pundits predict to be available at the top of the draft this year.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)