Thursday, April 28, 2011

Everyone has us taking a receiver.

The wide majority of mock drafts I've looked at have the Browns taking a Wide Receiver. A.J. Green if he's available, Julio Jones if Green is gone. Most comments indicate that the selector thinks it's the team's greatest area of need, and usually throw in something about helping Colt McCoy. While I think the odds are that they will be fine players, I think going in this direction would be a mistake.

At pick number 6, you should have the opportunity to draft an impact player. If your goal is to make the playoffs, you draft a Wide Receiver. If your goal is to win the Super Bowl, you draft a defensive player. Despite the rules changes that have made the NFL a pass happy league, defense still wins championships. That and Quarterback play. A Wide Receiver will typically touch the ball 5-10 times a game, making his impact limited. I'm not saying Wide Receivers don't matter, but that position is a luxury you can draft *after* you have the other pieces in place. There are too many defensive impact players at the top of this draft to justify taking a wide receiver.

Secondly, which is the better draft strategy? Drafting for need or drafting the best player available on your board? The mocks I've read seem to favor the "need" approach. I don't agree with that drafting technique, but I don't think it's an either/or situation either. I think your draft has to be weighted towards selecting the best player available,  favoring your positions (plural) of need. In other words, If I really need a safety, but there are no highly rated safties in the draft, I'll pass on that "need" player, and select the best player available. At the end of the day, I'm looking for impact players. Players who will upgrade the talent level of my team significantly, not just plug a hole. Likewise, let's say Colt McCoy has a good year, but our defense can't keep anyone out of the end zone, and we go 1-15. Even if Colt shows that he can play, do you think that there's any way I don't take Andrew Luck? Not on your life. I'm running to the podium to make that selection. So it's not a cut and dried thing, there's no absolute formula. It is a judgement call that weighs team need with talent available, and makes the best selection based on projecting what kind of a difference that player will make to your team 3-5 years from now.

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