Saturday, April 28, 2018
Saturday, Rounds 4-7
All of my 2nd Round picks were on the board when the Browns made their choices, but the Browns opted to go in other directions. To my surprise, Jessie Bates is already off the board and has been taken by the Bengals. So, my revised 4th Round pick is easy: I'm not sure why Maurice Hurst DT Michigan has fallen like this, but he's a Defensive Tackle with the ability to penetrate the OL and put pressure on the Quarterback. I would be shocked if he's still on the board at 114, so I would package 114 with any of our remaining picks necessary to move up and take Hurst, even if that means reacquiring our pick at the top of the round. Based on what I've seen so far, I'd guess there's zero chance that Dorsey will do this.
Friday, April 27, 2018
Well, as a result of players getting drafted in the 1st Round, and some not getting drafted, I need to redo my 2nd Round, which will have implications for the following rounds. We still control the board, and some ripe plums have fallen to us. My new 2nd Round:
2/33 Josh Jackson CB Iowa
2/35 Sam Hubbard DE Ohio St
2/64 Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma
We solve both Corner spots in one draft, as well as getting a fine edge rusher to pair with Garrett. Brown is someone who can be groomed to take the LT spot vacated by Joe Thomas. However, I would not start him there this year.
If Hubbard were to be taken at 34 (he won't,) I would take Maurice Hurst DT Michigan at 35. If Orlando Brown is off the board by pick 64, I'm hoping Nick Chubb RB Auburn is there and I'll take him. However, assuming I get all 3 of my picks in the 2nd, I still need a Running Back. Therefore, my best options are taking Kalen Ballage RB Arizona St in the 4th Round instead of Jessie Bates, or taking Bo Scarbrough RB Alabama in the 5th instead of Luke Falk. Since Falk is a luxury pick, I'd probably opt for taking Scarbrough in the 5th, but he's less likely to develop into a lead back. It probably would need to be addressed in 2019. (Yes, I know Derrious Guice RB LSU is sitting there and we could grab him at 33. I'd rather fix my secondary.)
I would have preferred (obviously) that we went with my original draft. More on that in the next few days...
2/33 Josh Jackson CB Iowa
2/35 Sam Hubbard DE Ohio St
2/64 Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma
We solve both Corner spots in one draft, as well as getting a fine edge rusher to pair with Garrett. Brown is someone who can be groomed to take the LT spot vacated by Joe Thomas. However, I would not start him there this year.
If Hubbard were to be taken at 34 (he won't,) I would take Maurice Hurst DT Michigan at 35. If Orlando Brown is off the board by pick 64, I'm hoping Nick Chubb RB Auburn is there and I'll take him. However, assuming I get all 3 of my picks in the 2nd, I still need a Running Back. Therefore, my best options are taking Kalen Ballage RB Arizona St in the 4th Round instead of Jessie Bates, or taking Bo Scarbrough RB Alabama in the 5th instead of Luke Falk. Since Falk is a luxury pick, I'd probably opt for taking Scarbrough in the 5th, but he's less likely to develop into a lead back. It probably would need to be addressed in 2019. (Yes, I know Derrious Guice RB LSU is sitting there and we could grab him at 33. I'd rather fix my secondary.)
I would have preferred (obviously) that we went with my original draft. More on that in the next few days...
Thursday, April 26, 2018
The Browns are going to take a Quarterback at number 1. My choice is Josh Allen, but if you poll 20 informed fans, you're likely to get picks for 4 or 5 different guys. All drafts are a roll of the dice, the QBs in this one more so than others. So let's take a capsule look at these guys...
Lamar Jackson of Louisville is a dual threat with a strong arm and great speed. Very athletic, but not a classic pocket passer and too inclined to take off and run for me. NFL defenses have caught up to these guys, and unfortunately, they have a hard time staying on the field. Curbing that tendency to flee when the pocket breaks down is hard to do. He's not the greatest at reading defenses or hitting receivers in stride, but those are skills that are refined with experience at the Pro level. I expect him to go mid-First Round.
Josh Rosen of UCLA is the classic pocket passer with the best mechanics in this class. Good arm strength and accuracy, plus he's cerebral and can read a defense. A lot of plusses. When I saw him as a Freshman, I said "There's my Browns quarterback." However, he's slight of build and has already had 2 concussions. The so-called off-the-field issues aren't a problem for me at all. (Really? He's too smart/inquisitive and he's a Liberal? Those are plusses!) He can't extend plays with his legs and his frame won't take a pounding. While I think he has a chance to be excellent at the NFL level, I'm looking elsewhere.
Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma...Errr. The positives - Great leadership skills. Great desire. Great work ethic. To borrow a boxing phrase (which I often do,) In order to beat him, you're going to have to knock him out. He'll just keep coming. Has confidence bordering on arrogance and then jumping over that line. He's short for an NFL QB but he's not slight. Decent arm, accurate, and a fighter. Lots of traits to look for in a franchise quarterback. So why don't I want him?...He's an average athlete. So much of his game is predicated on running around after the pocket breaks down and then pulling something out of his ass. (Usually throwing to a wide open receiver, as most college defensive backs have little ability to cover receivers for more than a few beats.) With his speed, he won't be able to live on that in the NFL. In fact, he'll get killed. Then there's the off-the-field stuff...The hanging up on teams who he thinks have no chance of drafting him, the list of journalists who he feels have slighted him, the incidents that have been well publicized. He's incredibly immature, and his confidence has hardened into a sense of entitlement. This is the guy who has enough positives to get you to the playoffs, but he will never win a Super Bowl. He's a loose cannon, and that is his biggest negative, not his height. I want the cool, calm surgeon who will pick a defense apart a la Aaron Rogers, not the guy who lets his emotions get out of control and flakes out. I suspect Mayfield is the latter.
Sam Darnold of USC. A lot to like here. Decent size and arm strength, with great ability to throw accurately on the run. Very resilient, and excellent leadership skills. The negatives are interceptions and ball security, but these are things that should improve with experience and coaching. Detractors point to the Rose Bowl against Ohio St, but he was under siege that whole game and still threw for around 350 yards. He also made 4 or 5 throws that were jaw dropping. Throws that showed a talent level that is extraordinary. If the Browns take Darnold, I won't be disappointed at all, even if he's not my first choice.
Josh Allen of Wyoming. Everyone knows about the size and "arm talent," which are elite. The negatives revolve around completion percentage and lack of signature wins, as well as lack of games against top level competition. Legitimate complaints, to a point. However...you don't draft a player on what he has done, you draft him on what he will be. The ability to draw these projections is a skill, and it sets the top GMs apart from the pack. A player's resume is a pointer, a baseline, a calling card. The skilled evaluator factors that in with the measurables, then looks at film to determine skill set and tendencies, and project what that player will be. Allen went to a small high school, a junior college, and then suffered a broken collar bone early on at Wyoming. He's inexperienced. Compared to his peers, very inexperienced. His attributes are off the chart, however. He's very intelligent and had the highest Wonderlic score among the top QBs. This is the kind of QB that has the kind of physical ability that comes around once every 25 years. He could bust, but his ceiling is John Elway, who his physical abilities comp to. You can't pass this guy up...But we did.
Lamar Jackson of Louisville is a dual threat with a strong arm and great speed. Very athletic, but not a classic pocket passer and too inclined to take off and run for me. NFL defenses have caught up to these guys, and unfortunately, they have a hard time staying on the field. Curbing that tendency to flee when the pocket breaks down is hard to do. He's not the greatest at reading defenses or hitting receivers in stride, but those are skills that are refined with experience at the Pro level. I expect him to go mid-First Round.
Josh Rosen of UCLA is the classic pocket passer with the best mechanics in this class. Good arm strength and accuracy, plus he's cerebral and can read a defense. A lot of plusses. When I saw him as a Freshman, I said "There's my Browns quarterback." However, he's slight of build and has already had 2 concussions. The so-called off-the-field issues aren't a problem for me at all. (Really? He's too smart/inquisitive and he's a Liberal? Those are plusses!) He can't extend plays with his legs and his frame won't take a pounding. While I think he has a chance to be excellent at the NFL level, I'm looking elsewhere.
Baker Mayfield of Oklahoma...Errr. The positives - Great leadership skills. Great desire. Great work ethic. To borrow a boxing phrase (which I often do,) In order to beat him, you're going to have to knock him out. He'll just keep coming. Has confidence bordering on arrogance and then jumping over that line. He's short for an NFL QB but he's not slight. Decent arm, accurate, and a fighter. Lots of traits to look for in a franchise quarterback. So why don't I want him?...He's an average athlete. So much of his game is predicated on running around after the pocket breaks down and then pulling something out of his ass. (Usually throwing to a wide open receiver, as most college defensive backs have little ability to cover receivers for more than a few beats.) With his speed, he won't be able to live on that in the NFL. In fact, he'll get killed. Then there's the off-the-field stuff...The hanging up on teams who he thinks have no chance of drafting him, the list of journalists who he feels have slighted him, the incidents that have been well publicized. He's incredibly immature, and his confidence has hardened into a sense of entitlement. This is the guy who has enough positives to get you to the playoffs, but he will never win a Super Bowl. He's a loose cannon, and that is his biggest negative, not his height. I want the cool, calm surgeon who will pick a defense apart a la Aaron Rogers, not the guy who lets his emotions get out of control and flakes out. I suspect Mayfield is the latter.
Sam Darnold of USC. A lot to like here. Decent size and arm strength, with great ability to throw accurately on the run. Very resilient, and excellent leadership skills. The negatives are interceptions and ball security, but these are things that should improve with experience and coaching. Detractors point to the Rose Bowl against Ohio St, but he was under siege that whole game and still threw for around 350 yards. He also made 4 or 5 throws that were jaw dropping. Throws that showed a talent level that is extraordinary. If the Browns take Darnold, I won't be disappointed at all, even if he's not my first choice.
Josh Allen of Wyoming. Everyone knows about the size and "arm talent," which are elite. The negatives revolve around completion percentage and lack of signature wins, as well as lack of games against top level competition. Legitimate complaints, to a point. However...you don't draft a player on what he has done, you draft him on what he will be. The ability to draw these projections is a skill, and it sets the top GMs apart from the pack. A player's resume is a pointer, a baseline, a calling card. The skilled evaluator factors that in with the measurables, then looks at film to determine skill set and tendencies, and project what that player will be. Allen went to a small high school, a junior college, and then suffered a broken collar bone early on at Wyoming. He's inexperienced. Compared to his peers, very inexperienced. His attributes are off the chart, however. He's very intelligent and had the highest Wonderlic score among the top QBs. This is the kind of QB that has the kind of physical ability that comes around once every 25 years. He could bust, but his ceiling is John Elway, who his physical abilities comp to. You can't pass this guy up...But we did.
So, if the Giants take Bradley Chubb at 2, my first option is to trade out. Buffalo presumably has the most to offer for the 4th pick, but to trade down, I want a king's ransom. They want a quarterback, and that costs a premium. I want both of their number ones this year (12 & 22,) and their number one next year. If that's too much blood, I might be persuaded to throw in a 4th rounder next year.
If I'm off at 4, (which only happens if Bradley Chubb is gone,) at 12 I'm taking Denzel Ward CB Ohio St if he's there, and if he isn't, I'm taking Calvin Ridley WR Alabama, who will be. At 22 I'm taking Sam Hubbard DE Ohio St, who I think is going to be a stud. I think his floor is Mike Vrabel, and his ceiling is just a shade below J.J. Watt. He has a high motor and would look great opposite side of Myles Garrett. I'm not an Emmanuel Ogbah guy. I think he's a JAG. I wouldn't cut him loose, but he'd be a depth guy. I think Chubb and Hubbard have a chance to be Pro Bowlers along with Garrett.
If I'm off at 4, (which only happens if Bradley Chubb is gone,) at 12 I'm taking Denzel Ward CB Ohio St if he's there, and if he isn't, I'm taking Calvin Ridley WR Alabama, who will be. At 22 I'm taking Sam Hubbard DE Ohio St, who I think is going to be a stud. I think his floor is Mike Vrabel, and his ceiling is just a shade below J.J. Watt. He has a high motor and would look great opposite side of Myles Garrett. I'm not an Emmanuel Ogbah guy. I think he's a JAG. I wouldn't cut him loose, but he'd be a depth guy. I think Chubb and Hubbard have a chance to be Pro Bowlers along with Garrett.
Wednesday, April 25, 2018
2018 Draft picks
Tomorrow is the draft, and I see I never posted explanations for last year's picks. I'll have to address that at a later date. I'll do the same for this year - Post the picks and then flesh the details out later. My picks for this year:
1/1 Josh Allen QB Wyoming
1/4 Bradley Chubb DE North Carolina St
2/33 Maurice Hurst DT Michigan
2/35 Sony Michel RB Georgia
2/64 Billy Price C Ohio St
4/114 Jessie Bates III S Wake Forest
5/150 Luke Falk QB Washington St
6/175 J.K. Scott P Alabama
6/188 Dane Cruikshank S Arizona
I think that all of these guys will be on the board at the times the Browns draft, with the possible exceptions of Chubb and Price. With that in mind, second choice/alternate selections for this draft are (only if the above are off the board)
1/4 1) Trade down 2) Denzel Ward CB Ohio St
2/33 1) Josh Jackson CB Iowa 2) Sam Hubbard DE Ohio St
2/35 1) Rashaad Penny RB San Diego St 2) Ronald Jones RB USC
2/64 1) Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma 2) Nick Chubb RB Auburn
Would I trade out of 4? If so, what would the price be, and who would I take then? I'll address that tomorrow...
1/1 Josh Allen QB Wyoming
1/4 Bradley Chubb DE North Carolina St
2/33 Maurice Hurst DT Michigan
2/35 Sony Michel RB Georgia
2/64 Billy Price C Ohio St
4/114 Jessie Bates III S Wake Forest
5/150 Luke Falk QB Washington St
6/175 J.K. Scott P Alabama
6/188 Dane Cruikshank S Arizona
I think that all of these guys will be on the board at the times the Browns draft, with the possible exceptions of Chubb and Price. With that in mind, second choice/alternate selections for this draft are (only if the above are off the board)
1/4 1) Trade down 2) Denzel Ward CB Ohio St
2/33 1) Josh Jackson CB Iowa 2) Sam Hubbard DE Ohio St
2/35 1) Rashaad Penny RB San Diego St 2) Ronald Jones RB USC
2/64 1) Orlando Brown OT Oklahoma 2) Nick Chubb RB Auburn
Would I trade out of 4? If so, what would the price be, and who would I take then? I'll address that tomorrow...
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